Three (and more) causes of Facebook’s Death

Wired has a good article on the three potential ways in which Facebook might die. It’s common to see these predictions on big sites, as they often come true (how often do you do a search on Yahoo! or log into your Friendster account?).

I would add on a few more:

• Lawsuits – Privacy is always a big concern on the Internet. Not necessarily a concern among users, per se, but among privacy advocates, concerned parents, and, most importantly, attorney generals. Facebook is already getting subpoenaed, and if the lawsuits pile on thick enough, it could stop the blue giant dead in its tracks.
• Advertising  – Facebook’s only way of making money, at this point, is by selling straight up advertising. If advertising starts failing, so does the money. I have ideas for where they could go in the future to make money, but we’ll see if that happens. If they crank up the ads too much, they risk pissing off the user base, who could disappear overnight.
• Spam – Anything that opens itself to user generated content also opens itself to spam, scammers, and the like. I’ve already had 15 unknown people try and friend me, only to see that their profile was merely an ad from some random site. Sites can throw up as many barriers as they want, but these people will still get through. If this becomes too burdensome for users, Facebook will have to take some drastic action as Hot or Not did, otherwise the users will leave.
• Aging User Base – Facebook came to my school when I was halfway through my undergrad. As I’ve been out of school for a year now, I use it less and less, only checking it once a day instead of 10+. As the initial userbase ages, usage among them will drop. Facebook has to fight not only to keep the current users from leaving en masse, but to engage newer generations as they come online. If they don’t, it’ll be a ghost town full of content no one sees, and users who don’t even bother deleting their accounts.