Year of the…

The beginning of a new year, like any other major milestone, is always a time for reflection, evaluation, and prediction. Main stream media, websites, bloggers, all give predictions (I’m guilty as well). This year, it’s one of three things:

• Mobile – We’ve seen this prediction at least half a dozen times. I still see too many barriers, and nothing to break through. Phone companies will still charge an absurd amount for what is nearly a free service. There are hundreds of different phone designs, browsers, and capabilities. Android will try, but it’ll be worthless if it doesn’t get accepted by the majority of carriers. And city-wide wireless? Still hasn’t been successful. More importantly, what can the mobile web really offer us? Other than giving us access to the same resources available on our desktop or laptop, what value does mobile add?
• Video – Sorry Scoble, while your followers might like to watch you talk for hours a day on qik or mogulus, doesn’t make it mainstream. I can’t imagine a time where this particular medium gains widespread adoption. Good video takes money, and can’t be distributed for free, unless there is some serious advertising revenue. Putting a camera on yourself and someone else and chatting for a while isn’t going to make any real money. The writer’s strike has completely cut off the supply of fresh TV entertainment (thank heavens The Wire is OK), but nothing has seemed to be able to fill the space.
• Recession – Crap.

I’m not going to summarize what I hope to see in the coming year in one word, or call it Year of the ____. My predictions/hopes?

• The technology entrepreneurial ecosystem will wake up, and start focusing on startups, ideas, and people that solve real world pains. We can blabber on about online video, social media, mobile web, VOIP, and on and on, but there has to be a focus on how it will actually matter to the world, not just us.
• 2008 will continue the trend of the reversing the Industrial age. Knowledge workers will move away from cubicle farms, code factories, middle management, employee ID numbers, and become a cottage industry of work anywhere freelancers, working under the umbrella virtual companies and relying on technology to reduce overhead and enhance communication.
• skeevisArts and Localnik will catch on fire.
• My life has undergone many changes in the past two years, and 2008 will be no different. I’ll realize and address my “Life Major” and, with the help of my friends, family, and peers I’ve met and will meet in the coming year, celebrate many champagne moments. L’chaim (“to life” in Hebrew).